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Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None in 2026 at 83.5%, followed by Anthropic at 13%, OpenAI at 3.5%. The market has $126.7K in total volume and $411 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| None in 2026 | 83.5% | -1.0 pts | $26.3K |
| Anthropic | 13% | +1.0 pts | $19.0K |
| OpenAI | 3.5% | -0.9 pts | $15.3K |
| 1.7% | -0.1 pts | $12.1K | |
| xAI | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $9.7K |
| Alibaba | 0.4% | -0.3 pts | $11.4K |
| DeepSeek | 0.3% | — | $13.5K |
| Z.ai | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $9.9K |
| Mistral | <0.1% | — | $9.5K |
Total volume $126.7K · 24h volume $411 · Liquidity $17.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ None in 2026 ■ Anthropic ■ OpenAI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None in 2026 at 83.5%, followed by Anthropic at 13%, OpenAI at 3.5%. The market has $126.7K in total volume and $411 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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