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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 80.5%, followed by October at 8.5%, December at 5.1%. The market has $463.0K in total volume and $743 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 | 80.5% | — | $314.1K |
| October | 8.5% | — | $17.4K |
| December | 5.1% | +1.4 pts | $23.1K |
| November | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $10.9K |
| August | <0.1% | — | $49.6K |
| September | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $22.0K |
| July (settled) | 0.0% | — | $25.8K |
Total volume $463.0K · 24h volume $743 · Liquidity $295.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 ■ October ■ December · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 80.5%, followed by October at 8.5%, December at 5.1%. The market has $463.0K in total volume and $743 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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