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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 54.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 42.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $203.2K in total volume and $344 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 54.5% | -0.5 pts | $92.2K |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 42.5% | — | $78.1K |
| Dune: Messiah | <0.1% | — | $3.7K |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | <0.1% | — | $3.4K |
| Michael (settled) | 0.0% | -18.4 pts | $8.4K |
| The Odyssey (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $6.2K |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $4.7K |
| Toy Story 5 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $3.7K |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.9K |
Total volume $203.2K · 24h volume $344 · Liquidity $55.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Avengers: Doomsday ■ Spider-Man: Brand New Day ■ Dune: Messiah · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 54.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 42.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $203.2K in total volume and $344 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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