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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 72.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 25.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $425.8K in total volume and $6.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 72.5% | -2.5 pts | $217.9K |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 25.5% | -0.5 pts | $157.6K |
| Dune: Messiah | <0.1% | — | $16.1K |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | <0.1% | — | $8.5K |
| Michael (settled) | 0.0% | -18.4 pts | $8.4K |
| The Odyssey (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $6.2K |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $4.7K |
| Toy Story 5 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $3.7K |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.9K |
Total volume $425.8K · 24h volume $6.0K · Liquidity $59.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Avengers: Doomsday ■ Spider-Man: Brand New Day ■ Dune: Messiah · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic opening week gross among all movies in 2026.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening week figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening week figure in the "Weekly Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of that movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekly" figure for its first week on the "Domestic Weekly" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used.
Movies will be ranked by domestic opening week gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place.
If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 72.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 25.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $425.8K in total volume and $6.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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