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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Texas at 75.5%, followed by Iowa at 71%, Maine at 68.5%. The market has $72.1K in total volume and $627 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 75.5% | — | $8.2K |
| Iowa | 71% | +2.5 pts | $5.9K |
| Maine | 68.5% | +8.5 pts | $1.3K |
| Alaska | 67.5% | +11.0 pts | $3.4K |
| South Carolina | 65.5% | +3.5 pts | $157 |
| Michigan | 60.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.2K |
| New Hampshire | 59.5% | +25.5 pts | $2.4K |
| Kansas | 59% | -1.0 pts | $792 |
| Ohio (Special) | 47.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.7K |
| Nebraska | 43.5% | -7.0 pts | $4.2K |
| North Carolina | 32% | -0.5 pts | $6.4K |
| Minnesota | 24.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.8K |
| Georgia | 23.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.1K |
| Florida (Special) | 17.5% | — | $3.1K |
| New Mexico | 11.5% | — | $7.0K |
3 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $72.1K · 24h volume $627 · Liquidity $186.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Texas ■ Iowa ■ Maine · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Texas at 75.5%, followed by Iowa at 71%, Maine at 68.5%. The market has $72.1K in total volume and $627 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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