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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 09:51 UTC, the leading outcome is CATL at 29.5%, followed by Baidu at 26%, Tencent at 25.5%. The market has $425.1K in total volume and $37.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| CATL | 29.5% | +0.5 pts | $52.1K |
| Baidu | 26% | -1.5 pts | $59.9K |
| Tencent | 25.5% | — | $44.8K |
| Alibaba | 24.5% | — | $61.0K |
| BYD | 22.5% | — | $94.6K |
| Hesai | 17.5% | — | $13.3K |
| Unitree | 17% | — | $20.2K |
| CXMT | 14.5% | — | $8.4K |
| DJI | 13.5% | — | $32.2K |
| YMTC | 12.5% | — | $38.5K |
Total volume $425.1K · 24h volume $37.1K · Liquidity $60.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ CATL ■ Baidu ■ Tencent · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 09:51 UTC, the leading outcome is CATL at 29.5%, followed by Baidu at 26%, Tencent at 25.5%. The market has $425.1K in total volume and $37.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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