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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 57%, followed by Pete Hegseth at 8.9%, Susie Wiles at 8.0%. The market has $73.8K in total volume and $865 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 57% | +5.0 pts | $31.5K |
| Pete Hegseth | 8.9% | -0.5 pts | $2.5K |
| Susie Wiles | 8.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.9K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 7.2% | -0.1 pts | $19.4K |
| Mike Waltz | 7.2% | -1.9 pts | $1.0K |
| Scott Bessent | 4.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.0K |
| Marco Rubio | 4.0% | — | $688 |
| Doug Burgum | 3.0% | — | $1.1K |
| John Ratcliffe | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $716 |
| Brooke Rollins | 2.2% | — | $934 |
| Russell T. Vought | 2.0% | — | $695 |
| Scott Turner | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $489 |
| J.D. Vance | 1.4% | — | $730 |
| Sean Duffy | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $818 |
| Linda McMahon | 0.7% | — | $1.1K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $73.8K · 24h volume $865 · Liquidity $232.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ None before 2027 ■ Pete Hegseth ■ Susie Wiles · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 57%, followed by Pete Hegseth at 8.9%, Susie Wiles at 8.0%. The market has $73.8K in total volume and $865 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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