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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Loki at 80%, followed by Thor at 73%, Spider-Man at 60.5%. The market has $28.3K in total volume and $307 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loki | 80% | — | $4.2K |
| Thor | 73% | +3.5 pts | $3.1K |
| Spider-Man | 60.5% | -1.5 pts | $4.8K |
| Steve Rogers | 52% | +6.5 pts | $6.1K |
| Doctor Strange | 46.5% | +1.8 pts | $2.1K |
| Captain America (Sam Wilson) | 46.5% | +3.5 pts | $1.1K |
| Ant-Man | 45.5% | -7.5 pts | $5.6K |
| Shang-Chi | 32% | -13.0 pts | $335 |
| Doctor Doom | 9.0% | — | $905 |
Total volume $28.3K · 24h volume $307 · Liquidity $3.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Loki ■ Thor ■ Spider-Man · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to premiere on December 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Avengers: Doomsday". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.).
If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Avengers: Doomsday" will count toward resolution.
Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Avengers: Doomsday" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution..
If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Avengers: Doomsday" will qualify.
Only events depicted in the official "Avengers: Doomsday" film will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official film, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the film itself. The market will resolve according to the initial theatrical release of "Avengers: Doomsday".
If no theatrical release occurs by January 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Loki at 80%, followed by Thor at 73%, Spider-Man at 60.5%. The market has $28.3K in total volume and $307 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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