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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Byron Donalds at 99.3%, followed by Kevin Warsh at 90%, Delcy Rodriguez at 76.5%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $5.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Sheinbaum (settled) | 100% | +27.5 pts | $1.1K |
| Dana White (settled) | 100% | — | $862 |
| JD Vance (settled) | 100% | — | $621 |
| Xi Jinping (settled) | 100% | — | $574 |
| Byron Donalds | 99.3% | +6.3 pts | $499 |
| Kevin Warsh | 90% | — | $1.1K |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 76.5% | — | $20 |
| Karoline Leavitt | 71.5% | +2.5 pts | $2.6K |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 69.5% | +28.0 pts | $1.3K |
| Dario Amodei | 69.5% | +47.0 pts | $392 |
| Elon Musk | 69% | +1.0 pts | $382 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 67% | +13.0 pts | $465 |
| Kim Jong Un | 66.5% | +4.5 pts | $215 |
| Zohran Mamdani | 64.5% | +11.5 pts | $1.3K |
| Andy Burnham | 55% | -2.0 pts | $1.2K |
10 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $20.2K · 24h volume $5.5K · Liquidity $3.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Byron Donalds ■ Kevin Warsh ■ Delcy Rodriguez · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as praise if it expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the individual either personally or professionally. This includes direct praise, attributing a positive personal or professional trait to the individual (e.g., strong, smart, loyal, a winner), or equivalent positive descriptions. General neutrality or polite diplomatic language will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Byron Donalds at 99.3%, followed by Kevin Warsh at 90%, Delcy Rodriguez at 76.5%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $5.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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