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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.5% (No 29.5%), with $199.9K traded in total and $310 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70.5% | +2.0 pts | $199.9K |
| No | 29.5% | -2.0 pts | — |
Total volume $199.9K · 24h volume $310 · Liquidity $5.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.
For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · Crypto Prices odds · AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.5% (No 29.5%), with $199.9K traded in total and $310 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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