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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1575 at 35.5%, followed by 1600 at 7.6%. The market has $133.2K in total volume and $551 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1550 (settled) | 100% | +4.9 pts | $65.3K |
| 1525 (settled) | 100% | +3.6 pts | $3.3K |
| 1575 | 35.5% | +2.0 pts | $49.5K |
| 1600 | 7.6% | — | $15.1K |
Total volume $133.2K · 24h volume $551 · Liquidity $2.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1575 ■ 1600 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1575 at 35.5%, followed by 1600 at 7.6%. The market has $133.2K in total volume and $551 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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