Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 1540 at 4.7%, followed by 1530 at 3.5%, 1550 at 1.1%. The market has $389.0K in total volume and $67 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1520 (settled) | 100% | — | $262.3K |
| 1510 (settled) | 100% | +45.5 pts | $80.7K |
| 1540 | 4.7% | -0.1 pts | $11.2K |
| 1530 | 3.5% | +0.2 pts | $22.8K |
| 1550 | 1.1% | — | $12.0K |
Total volume $389.0K · 24h volume $67 · Liquidity $2.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1540 ■ 1530 ■ 1550 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 1540 at 4.7%, followed by 1530 at 3.5%, 1550 at 1.1%. The market has $389.0K in total volume and $67 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/">Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30.svg" alt="Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog