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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027

As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 6.0% (No 94%), with $344.3K traded in total and $1 in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
Yes6.0%
-0.5 pts$344.3K
No94%
+0.5 pts

Total volume $344.3K · 24h volume $1 · Liquidity $1.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 25Sep 24

Yes No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 6.0% (No 94%), with $344.3K traded in total and $1 in the last 24 hours.

When does the Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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