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Updated October 2, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: December 20, 2026
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dune 3 at 4.2% (Avengers: Doomsday 95.8%), with $54.5K traded in total and $524 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dune 3 | 4.2% | +1.4 pts | $54.5K |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 95.8% | -1.4 pts | — |
Total volume $54.5K · 24h volume $524 · Liquidity $15.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Dune 3 ■ Avengers: Doomsday · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dune 3 at 4.2% (Avengers: Doomsday 95.8%), with $54.5K traded in total and $524 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 20, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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