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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:47 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13.5%. The market has $126.7K in total volume and $397 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 13.5% | +3.5 pts | $30.2K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $96.5K |
Total volume $126.7K · 24h volume $397 · Liquidity $3.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Big Tech odds · Elon Musk odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:47 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13.5%. The market has $126.7K in total volume and $397 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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