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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 8, 2026
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.3% (No 99.7%), with $21.2K traded in total and $5.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.3% | -0.7 pts | $21.2K |
| No | 99.7% | +0.7 pts | — |
Total volume $21.2K · 24h volume $5.4K · Liquidity $13.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping kiss at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released during the calendar days (ET) of the summit to qualify.
A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the lips of one individual touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from either party will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the summit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.3% (No 99.7%), with $21.2K traded in total and $5.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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