August 13, 2026
Most days, the headline markets on Polymarket are geopolitical. Today's snapshot (August 13, 2026) is no different — the Iran and Strait of Hormuz boards are still soaking up the biggest volume. But those have been picked over here already, and honestly, the more interesting exercise right now is looking at the markets that look settled.
Because "settled" is where a lot of the mispricing hides. A market at 1.8% is not a market with no information in it — it's a market where the information arrives in lumps, and the price does nothing for weeks until it does everything at once. Below are three boards from today's snapshot that reward that kind of reading, plus a note on how I screen them.
The Republican nominee for Florida Governor market has Fishback at 1.8% "Yes" against 98.2% "No." That's a longshot by any definition. What makes it worth a line in the journal is
Join Polymarket View on Telegram →