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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $97.8K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $4.4K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $86.7K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $6.7K |
Total volume $97.8K · 24h volume $400 · Liquidity $13.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $97.8K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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