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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Dale Strong (R) at 95%, followed by Andrew Sneed (D) at 5.5%. The market has $54.2K in total volume and $7.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Strong (R) | 95% | +0.5 pts | $32.3K |
| Andrew Sneed (D) | 5.5% | — | $21.9K |
Total volume $54.2K · 24h volume $7.9K · Liquidity $96.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Dale Strong (R) ■ Andrew Sneed (D) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Dale Strong (R) at 95%, followed by Andrew Sneed (D) at 5.5%. The market has $54.2K in total volume and $7.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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