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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 61.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 29.5%, By September 30, 2026 at 1.8%. The market has $68.3K in total volume and $720 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 61.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.2K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 29.5% | -2.0 pts | $16.3K |
| By September 30, 2026 | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $46.8K |
Total volume $68.3K · 24h volume $720 · Liquidity $13.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By September 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of Anthropic, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used Anthropic's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds · Science & Space odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 61.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 29.5%, By September 30, 2026 at 1.8%. The market has $68.3K in total volume and $720 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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