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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 20, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 42%, followed by By November 30 at 13%, By October 31 at 0.6%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $428 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 42% | +1.5 pts | $8.0K |
| By November 30 | 13% | -4.5 pts | $2.2K |
| By October 31 | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $5.1K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.6K |
| By August 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.5K |
Total volume $20.3K · 24h volume $428 · Liquidity $4.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 20, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 42%, followed by By November 30 at 13%, By October 31 at 0.6%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $428 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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