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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: October 19, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is more than 13 at 20.5%, followed by 11 at 17.5%, 10 at 16.5%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $869 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| more than 13 | 20.5% | -8.0 pts | $6.0K |
| 11 | 17.5% | +3.5 pts | $2.6K |
| 10 | 16.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.0K |
| 12 | 15.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.0K |
| 9 | 12.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.0K |
| 13 | 10.5% | +4.0 pts | $40 |
| 8 | 6.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.0K |
| 7 | 3.5% | -0.9 pts | $1.7K |
| ≤6 | <0.1% | -0.5 pts | $5.5K |
Total volume $23.9K · 24h volume $869 · Liquidity $14.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ more than 13 ■ 11 ■ 10 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is more than 13 at 20.5%, followed by 11 at 17.5%, 10 at 16.5%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $869 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 19, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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