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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 140-159 at 77.4%, followed by 120-139 at 13.5%, 160-179 at 6.0%. The market has $334.0K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 77.4% | -0.5 pts | $50.3K |
| 120-139 | 13.5% | -0.1 pts | $5.2K |
| 160-179 | 6.0% | -0.1 pts | $100.8K |
| 200 or more | 2.1% | — | $107.1K |
| 180-199 | 1.1% | — | $61.2K |
| 100-119 | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $3.6K |
| <100 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $5.8K |
Total volume $334.0K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $10.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 140-159 ■ 120-139 ■ 160-179 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 140-159 at 77.4%, followed by 120-139 at 13.5%, 160-179 at 6.0%. The market has $334.0K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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