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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $75B to $85B at 36.5%, followed by $65B to $75B at 20.6%, $95B to $105B at 15%. The market has $164.3K in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75B to $85B | 36.5% | -7.1 pts | $23.8K |
| $65B to $75B | 20.6% | +12.1 pts | $7.1K |
| $95B to $105B | 15% | -2.5 pts | $30.4K |
| $85B to $95B | 13.8% | +5.3 pts | $44.9K |
| <$65B | 4.9% | -0.4 pts | $6.5K |
| $105B to $115B | 1.5% | — | $30.3K |
| $115B to $125B | 0.9% | -0.4 pts | $12.3K |
| $135B+ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $6.8K |
| $125B to $135B | 0.3% | — | $2.1K |
Total volume $164.3K · 24h volume $7.4K · Liquidity $72.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $75B to $85B ■ $65B to $75B ■ $95B to $105B · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by Anthropic in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $75B to $85B at 36.5%, followed by $65B to $75B at 20.6%, $95B to $105B at 15%. The market has $164.3K in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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