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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7.5+ at 99.7%, followed by 7.0+ at 99.6%, 6.5+ at 99.6%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5+ | 99.7% | -0.1 pts | $4.1K |
| 7.0+ | 99.6% | — | $3.2K |
| 6.5+ | 99.6% | -0.1 pts | $4.2K |
| 8.0+ | 5.7% | -1.9 pts | $3.9K |
| 9.0+ | 4.5% | +2.0 pts | $680 |
| 8.5+ | 3.6% | +2.6 pts | $4.6K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $3.7K · Liquidity $14.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 7.5+ ■ 7.0+ ■ 6.5+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 7.5+ at 99.7%, followed by 7.0+ at 99.6%, 6.5+ at 99.6%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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