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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Brad Little (R) at 96.8%, followed by Terri Pickens (D) at 3.1%. The market has $24.7K in total volume and $761 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Little (R) | 96.8% | -1.2 pts | $20.5K |
| Terri Pickens (D) | 3.1% | +1.0 pts | $4.2K |
Total volume $24.7K · 24h volume $761 · Liquidity $29.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Brad Little (R) ■ Terri Pickens (D) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Brad Little (R) at 96.8%, followed by Terri Pickens (D) at 3.1%. The market has $24.7K in total volume and $761 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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