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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: September 30, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 9.5%, followed by By September 30 at 2.1%. The market has $457.9K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 9.5% | +0.4 pts | $123 |
| By September 30 | 2.1% | -0.5 pts | $115.9K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $114.1K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $104.5K |
| By June 7 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.4 pts | $94.1K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $17.5K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $11.5K |
Total volume $457.9K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $12.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 9.5%, followed by By September 30 at 2.1%. The market has $457.9K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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