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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: October 13, 2026
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ariel Pakes at 22%, followed by Susan Athey at 18.5%, Robert Barro at 10%. The market has $32.9K in total volume and $32.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Pakes | 22% | — | $6.1K |
| Susan Athey | 18.5% | — | $4.4K |
| Robert Barro | 10% | — | $2.0K |
| Partha Dasgupta | 9.9% | — | $4.2K |
| Victor Chernozhukov | 9.5% | — | $80 |
| Richard Blundell | 9.2% | — | $763 |
| Michael Woodford | 8.0% | — | $228 |
| Andreu Mas-Colell | 7.8% | — | $633 |
| Lawrence Katz | 7.5% | — | $2.2K |
| Matthew Rabin | 7.5% | — | $1.3K |
| Ernst Fehr | 7.5% | — | $1.0K |
| Demian Reidel | 7.0% | — | $1.2K |
| David Autor | 6.5% | — | $521 |
| Luigi Zingales | 5.5% | — | $3.9K |
| Hal Varian | 5.5% | — | $858 |
2 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $32.9K · 24h volume $32.9K · Liquidity $42.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ariel Pakes ■ Susan Athey ■ Robert Barro · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest.
The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The prize may be shared by up to three laureates. A listed person who shares the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will resolve to "Yes" regardless of how many other laureates are named alongside them.
If the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is withheld, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, published at https://www.nobelprize.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ariel Pakes at 22%, followed by Susan Athey at 18.5%, Robert Barro at 10%. The market has $32.9K in total volume and $32.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 13, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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