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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: November 29, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1st hottest at 94.8%, followed by 3rd hottest at 4.3%, 2nd hottest at 0.1%. The market has $28.4K in total volume and $174 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 94.8% | -0.2 pts | $17.0K |
| 3rd hottest | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $8.1K |
| 2nd hottest | 0.1% | — | $1.9K |
| 4th or lower | 0.1% | — | $1.4K |
Total volume $28.4K · 24h volume $174 · Liquidity $8.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1st hottest ■ 3rd hottest ■ 2nd hottest · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record.
Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1st hottest at 94.8%, followed by 3rd hottest at 4.3%, 2nd hottest at 0.1%. The market has $28.4K in total volume and $174 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 29, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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