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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 15.5% (No 84.5%), with $274.7K traded in total and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15.5% | -3.0 pts | $274.7K |
| No | 84.5% | +3.0 pts | — |
Total volume $274.7K · 24h volume $1.8K · Liquidity $29.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 15.5% (No 84.5%), with $274.7K traded in total and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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