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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is $800B at 85.7%, followed by $1T at 71.5%, $1.2T at 70.5%. The market has $1.55M in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $800B | 85.7% | +6.1 pts | $119.6K |
| $1T | 71.5% | — | $1.05M |
| $1.2T | 70.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.3K |
| $1.4T | 69% | — | $71.0K |
| $1.6T | 57.5% | -0.5 pts | $52.1K |
Total volume $1.55M · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $15.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $800B ■ $1T ■ $1.2T · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is $800B at 85.7%, followed by $1T at 71.5%, $1.2T at 70.5%. The market has $1.55M in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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