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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: March 15, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Paul Giamatti at 92.5%, followed by Andrew Garfield at 83%, Sam Rockwell at 74%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Giamatti | 92.5% | -1.0 pts | $643 |
| Andrew Garfield | 83% | -3.5 pts | $170 |
| Sam Rockwell | 74% | -1.5 pts | $256 |
| John Leguizamo | 68.5% | +6.0 pts | $3.0K |
| Guitarricadelafuente | 63.5% | +14.5 pts | $1.1K |
| Edward Norton | 27.5% | -0.5 pts | $6 |
| Robert Pattinson | 16.5% | -0.5 pts | $691 |
| Riz Ahmed | 15% | +1.5 pts | $1.1K |
| Steve Buscemi | 12.5% | — | $103 |
| Himesh Patel | 12% | -1.0 pts | $267 |
| John Goodman | 11.2% | -0.2 pts | $9 |
| Charles Melton | 7.0% | +1.0 pts | $1.1K |
| Miles Teller | 5.3% | -0.9 pts | $341 |
| Tom Holland | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.0K |
| Channing Tatum | 4.5% | -1.0 pts | $173 |
5 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $20.4K · 24h volume $4.0K · Liquidity $33.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Paul Giamatti ■ Andrew Garfield ■ Sam Rockwell · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Paul Giamatti at 92.5%, followed by Andrew Garfield at 83%, Sam Rockwell at 74%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 15, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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