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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 5, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 190 at 29%, followed by 195-199 at 17%, 190-194 at 14.5%. The market has $312.1K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 190 | 29% | -0.5 pts | $47.1K |
| 195-199 | 17% | +1.0 pts | $34.6K |
| 190-194 | 14.5% | +1.0 pts | $15.9K |
| 200-204 | 12.9% | -0.5 pts | $26.8K |
| 205-209 | 11.8% | — | $41.8K |
| 210-214 | 9.4% | -0.2 pts | $16.5K |
| 215-219 | 6.6% | — | $12.2K |
| 220-224 | 4.9% | — | $60.1K |
| 225-229 | 1.9% | -0.1 pts | $25.1K |
| 230+ | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $32.1K |
Total volume $312.1K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $213.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Below 190 ■ 195-199 ■ 190-194 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · World Elections odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 190 at 29%, followed by 195-199 at 17%, 190-194 at 14.5%. The market has $312.1K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 5, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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