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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 52%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 3.1%. The market has $71.3K in total volume and $562 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 52% | — | $24.4K |
| December 31, 2026 | 3.1% | -0.1 pts | $46.9K |
Total volume $71.3K · 24h volume $562 · Liquidity $7.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2027 ■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Big Tech odds · Elon Musk odds · Science & Space odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 52%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 3.1%. The market has $71.3K in total volume and $562 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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