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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Nicolás Maduro at 59.2%, followed by Delcy Rodríguez at 40%, No Head of State at 0.9%. The market has $97.48M in total volume and $115.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 59.2% | +5.0 pts | $3.22M |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 40% | -2.5 pts | $2.18M |
| No Head of State | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.62M |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | — | $25.86M |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $9.27M |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | — | $1.49M |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.1% | — | $1.24M |
| Richard Grenell | <0.1% | — | $32.79M |
| Evan Pettus | <0.1% | — | $5.66M |
| Dan Caine | <0.1% | — | $4.15M |
| Dinorah Figuera | <0.1% | — | $3.00M |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <0.1% | — | $2.13M |
| María Corina Machado | <0.1% | — | $1.52M |
| Edmundo González | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.31M |
| Donald Trump | <0.1% | — | $1.15M |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $97.48M · 24h volume $115.6K · Liquidity $2.26M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Nicolás Maduro ■ Delcy Rodríguez ■ No Head of State · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Venezuela odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Nicolás Maduro at 59.2%, followed by Delcy Rodríguez at 40%, No Head of State at 0.9%. The market has $97.48M in total volume and $115.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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