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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 5% to 6% at 33.5%, followed by 4% to 5% at 28%, 6% to 7% at 15.1%. The market has $24.1K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% to 6% | 33.5% | +4.0 pts | $9.2K |
| 4% to 5% | 28% | -3.0 pts | $5.6K |
| 6% to 7% | 15.1% | +6.9 pts | $1.1K |
| <4% | 15% | -9.5 pts | $2.4K |
| 7% to 8% | 4.7% | -1.7 pts | $814 |
| 10% to 11% | 3.3% | +0.5 pts | $861 |
| 9% to 10% | 2.7% | -0.2 pts | $753 |
| 8% to 9% | 2.1% | -3.4 pts | $1.7K |
| 12%+ | 0.6% | — | $1.3K |
| 11% to 12% | <0.1% | -0.5 pts | $446 |
Total volume $24.1K · 24h volume $6.7K · Liquidity $62.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 5% to 6% ■ 4% to 5% ■ 6% to 7% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the percentage of Anthropic's total outstanding shares sold in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The number of shares sold is defined as the total number of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold by Anthropic and shares sold by selling stockholders as part of the IPO offering will both be included.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be included in the number of shares sold.
Total outstanding shares is defined as the number of shares of Class A common stock plus the number of shares of Class N common stock to be outstanding after the offering, each as stated in the section titled "The Offering" of the final prospectus, using the Class A figure that assumes no exercise of the overallotment option.
The percentage will be calculated by dividing the number of shares sold by the total outstanding shares, without rounding. If the percentage falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 5% to 6% at 33.5%, followed by 4% to 5% at 28%, 6% to 7% at 15.1%. The market has $24.1K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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