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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is $1.75–$2.00T at 40%, followed by $2.00–$2.25T at 27.9%, $2.25–$2.50T at 12.8%. The market has $84.7K in total volume and $4.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.75–$2.00T | 40% | -3.0 pts | $24.3K |
| $2.00–$2.25T | 27.9% | +3.1 pts | $21.4K |
| $2.25–$2.50T | 12.8% | +0.1 pts | $9.0K |
| $2.50T+ | 8.6% | -1.1 pts | $5.1K |
| $1.50–$1.75T | 5.0% | -0.9 pts | $12.8K |
| $1.25–$1.50T | 1.9% | -0.1 pts | $4.5K |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 1.5% | -0.8 pts | $4.2K |
| <$1.25T | 0.6% | — | $3.4K |
Total volume $84.7K · 24h volume $4.3K · Liquidity $16.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $1.75–$2.00T ■ $2.00–$2.25T ■ $2.25–$2.50T · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting.
If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date.
If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · AI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is $1.75–$2.00T at 40%, followed by $2.00–$2.25T at 27.9%, $2.25–$2.50T at 12.8%. The market has $84.7K in total volume and $4.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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