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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.25% at 57.3%, followed by ≥ 4.5% at 30.9%, 4.0% at 14.3%. The market has $6.89M in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% | 57.3% | +4.5 pts | $442.0K |
| ≥ 4.5% | 30.9% | +2.5 pts | $2.41M |
| 4.0% | 14.3% | -3.4 pts | $1.37M |
| 3.75% | 2.8% | +0.4 pts | $538.8K |
| 3.5% | 1.8% | — | $206.4K |
| 2.75% | 0.4% | — | $70.1K |
| 3.25% | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $86.5K |
| 3.0% | 0.4% | — | $500.5K |
| ≤1.0% | 0.4% | — | $257.7K |
| 2.5% | 0.4% | — | $180.0K |
| 1.25 | 0.4% | — | $153.8K |
| 2.0% | 0.3% | — | $269.6K |
| 1.75% | 0.3% | — | $153.9K |
| 2.25% | 0.2% | — | $93.3K |
| 1.5% | 0.1% | — | $151.5K |
Total volume $6.89M · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $491.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4.25% ■ ≥ 4.5% ■ 4.0% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.25% at 57.3%, followed by ≥ 4.5% at 30.9%, 4.0% at 14.3%. The market has $6.89M in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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