Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane? — Polymarket Odds

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Isaias (NHC designation AL092026) made landfall in the listed state as a hurricane, by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Isaias makes more than one landfall, every listed state with a qualifying landfall will resolve to "Yes". Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Isaias, that the center made landfall or moved onshore. Landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

A landfall counts if the NHC reports it. The state of a reported landfall is the state containing the center position the NHC states for that landfall in the first product reporting it (the LOCATION line of a Tropical Cyclone Update or Public Advisory), using the coordinates exactly as published. If that product states no center position, the state the NHC names for the landfall will be used. A track map, cone graphic, or GIS product will not be considered for resolution, including where the line it draws passes over land. Track reconstruction by any party, an NHC center position that the NHC does not report as a landfall, and landfall reports from any other meteorological agency or from news media, will not be considered for resolution.

Isaias must be a hurricane at the reported landfall: maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php). The intensity is the one the NHC states for the landfall, or, where the NHC states none, the one in the last advisory issued before it. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. If Isaias is a tropical storm, a tropical depression, a post-tropical cyclone, or a remnant low at the landfall, that landfall will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once the NHC publishes a qualifying report, or at October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the NHC has published none at that point, or has issued its final advisory on Isaias without one, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used.

If the NHC corrects or removes a published landfall report or stated intensity as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected information will be used; otherwise the published information stands. Otherwise, once the NHC has published a qualifying report, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Isaias will not be considered for …