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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 4, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 98.1%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 97.8%, Renan Santos at 1.1%. The market has $697.3K in total volume and $15.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 98.1% | +0.2 pts | $113.8K |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 97.8% | +0.5 pts | $343.2K |
| Renan Santos | 1.1% | — | $29.2K |
| Romeu Zema | 0.7% | — | $1.4K |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0.7% | — | $86.7K |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.6% | — | $37.9K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $968 |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.4% | — | $66.0K |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $18.1K |
Total volume $697.3K · 24h volume $15.2K · Liquidity $406.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Flavio Bolsonaro ■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Renan Santos · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 98.1%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 97.8%, Renan Santos at 1.1%. The market has $697.3K in total volume and $15.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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