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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ethiopia at 51.5%, followed by Nigeria at 48%, South Sudan at 43%. The market has $40.3K in total volume and $340 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda (settled) | 100% | +37.5 pts | $2.0K |
| Ethiopia | 51.5% | +0.5 pts | $107 |
| Nigeria | 48% | — | $25 |
| South Sudan | 43% | -1.0 pts | $4.6K |
| Canada | 35% | +8.5 pts | $2.3K |
| Somalia | 34% | -1.0 pts | $129 |
| Burundi | 31.5% | -4.5 pts | $229 |
| India | 27.5% | -0.5 pts | $840 |
| Kenya | 22.5% | — | $237 |
| Rwanda | 19.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.2K |
| Republic of the Congo | 18.5% | -9.5 pts | $12.8K |
| United States | 16.5% | +0.5 pts | $10.9K |
| China | 15% | -0.5 pts | $4.0K |
Total volume $40.3K · 24h volume $340 · Liquidity $3.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ethiopia ■ Nigeria ■ South Sudan · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ethiopia at 51.5%, followed by Nigeria at 48%, South Sudan at 43%. The market has $40.3K in total volume and $340 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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