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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 8, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Tim Cook at 98.7%, followed by Satya Nadella at 98.6%, Mark Zuckerberg at 98.5%. The market has $38.4K in total volume and $18.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook | 98.7% | +0.3 pts | $3.3K |
| Satya Nadella | 98.6% | +0.9 pts | $2.5K |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 98.5% | +11.5 pts | $5.1K |
| Sundar Pichai | 98.2% | +0.7 pts | $3.9K |
| Jensen Huang | 98% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| Sam Altman | 96.8% | +0.1 pts | $2.1K |
| Elon Musk | 87% | -10.3 pts | $15.1K |
| Dario Amodei | 5.5% | — | $1.7K |
| John Ternus | 2.6% | -2.9 pts | $1.2K |
| Alex Karp | 1.5% | -3.5 pts | $768 |
Total volume $38.4K · 24h volume $18.0K · Liquidity $66.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Tim Cook ■ Satya Nadella ■ Mark Zuckerberg · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, during which Donald Trump is expected to host a state dinner for him at the White House.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is confirmed to have attended the White House state dinner held for Xi Jinping between market creation and October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attending the state dinner is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the state dinner.
A qualifying state dinner must both occur and be known to have occurred within the specified timeframe.
Attendance at a state dinner which occurred before market creation will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Tim Cook at 98.7%, followed by Satya Nadella at 98.6%, Mark Zuckerberg at 98.5%. The market has $38.4K in total volume and $18.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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