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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Friedrich Merz at 75.5%, followed by Ursula von der Leyen at 27.5%, Mark Rutte at 23%. The market has $547.0K in total volume and $316 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| António Costa (settled) | 100% | +2.9 pts | $38.6K |
| Jared Kushner (settled) | 100% | +4.9 pts | $31.5K |
| Keith Kellogg (settled) | 100% | +0.5 pts | $27.4K |
| Steve Witkoff (settled) | 100% | +3.9 pts | $23.5K |
| Andy Burnham (settled) | 100% | +5.0 pts | $17.3K |
| Donald Tusk (settled) | 100% | +41.9 pts | $17.1K |
| Maia Sandu (settled) | 100% | +1.9 pts | $7.7K |
| Friedrich Merz | 75.5% | +19.0 pts | $77.5K |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 27.5% | +9.5 pts | $10.5K |
| Mark Rutte | 23% | +4.0 pts | $9.9K |
| Emmanuel Macron | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | $8.3K |
| Mark Carney | 11.5% | -6.0 pts | $12.3K |
| António Guterres | 10.5% | — | $9.6K |
| JD Vance | 8.0% | — | $146.9K |
| Donald Trump | 4.3% | — | $109.0K |
Total volume $547.0K · 24h volume $316 · Liquidity $44.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Friedrich Merz ■ Ursula von der Leyen ■ Mark Rutte · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Friedrich Merz at 75.5%, followed by Ursula von der Leyen at 27.5%, Mark Rutte at 23%. The market has $547.0K in total volume and $316 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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