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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mark Rutte at 45.5%, followed by Ursula von der Leyen at 34.5%, Melania Trump at 10%. The market has $795.7K in total volume and $607 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz (settled) | 100% | +28.9 pts | $85.2K |
| António Costa (settled) | 100% | +2.9 pts | $38.6K |
| Jared Kushner (settled) | 100% | +4.9 pts | $31.5K |
| Keith Kellogg (settled) | 100% | +0.5 pts | $27.4K |
| Steve Witkoff (settled) | 100% | +3.9 pts | $23.5K |
| Andy Burnham (settled) | 100% | +5.0 pts | $17.3K |
| Donald Tusk (settled) | 100% | +41.9 pts | $17.1K |
| Maia Sandu (settled) | 100% | +1.9 pts | $7.7K |
| Mark Rutte | 45.5% | +12.0 pts | $147.8K |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 34.5% | -1.0 pts | $97.7K |
| Melania Trump | 10% | -0.5 pts | $1.0K |
| Mark Carney | 8.0% | — | $15.1K |
| António Guterres | 8.0% | — | $10.2K |
| Emmanuel Macron | 5.4% | — | $15.0K |
| JD Vance | 5.1% | +0.9 pts | $149.9K |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $795.7K · 24h volume $607 · Liquidity $82.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Mark Rutte ■ Ursula von der Leyen ■ Melania Trump · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mark Rutte at 45.5%, followed by Ursula von der Leyen at 34.5%, Melania Trump at 10%. The market has $795.7K in total volume and $607 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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