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Updated October 21, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 21, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <5 at 62.6%, followed by 5-7 at 31%, 8-10 at 7.5%. The market has $21.4K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 62.6% | +4.2 pts | $5.7K |
| 5-7 | 31% | -6.5 pts | $7.2K |
| 8-10 | 7.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.2K |
| 14+ | 0.4% | — | $855 |
| 11-13 | <0.1% | -1.1 pts | $4.5K |
Total volume $21.4K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $9.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ <5 ■ 5-7 ■ 8-10 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 21, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <5 at 62.6%, followed by 5-7 at 31%, 8-10 at 7.5%. The market has $21.4K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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