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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%. The market has $760.9K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $111.3K |
| By March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $325.9K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $172.9K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $100.2K |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $50.7K |
Total volume $760.9K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $14.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%. The market has $760.9K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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