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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 69%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 46.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 4.3%. The market has $997.6K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 69% | -0.5 pts | $81 |
| By June 30, 2027 | 46.5% | — | $15 |
| By December 31, 2026 | 4.3% | +0.5 pts | $997.5K |
Total volume $997.6K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $63.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 69%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 46.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 4.3%. The market has $997.6K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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