Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Fed decision in December 2026
Updated November 9, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 76.5% and Kalshi at 76.5%. The widest gap is on Cut 25 bp: 0.8% on Polymarket vs 2.0% on Kalshi (1.2 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3 pts | Polymarket |
| Cut 25 bp | 0.8% | 2.0% | -1.2 pts | Polymarket |
| No change | 22.5% | 22.5% | 0 | Same |
| Hike 25 bp | 76.5% | 76.5% | 0 | Same |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 0.5% | 1.5% | -0.9 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 Fed rate odds for every upcoming FOMC meeting, Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 76.5% and Kalshi at 76.5%. The widest gap is on Cut 25 bp: 0.8% on Polymarket vs 2.0% on Kalshi (1.2 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
Other events priced on both: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election · Pro football champion (2026–27 season) · NBA champion 2027 · Stanley Cup 2027 · Champions League 2027 winner · Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first · US recession by the end of 2026. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice. All pairs