Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Fed decision in December 2026
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 71.5% and Kalshi at 70.5%. The widest gap is on No change: 26.5% on Polymarket vs 23.5% on Kalshi (3.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 pts | Polymarket |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.4% | 1.5% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| No change | 26.5% | 23.5% | +3.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Hike 25 bp | 71.5% | 70.5% | +1.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 2.1% | 1.5% | +0.6 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 71.5% and Kalshi at 70.5%. The widest gap is on No change: 26.5% on Polymarket vs 23.5% on Kalshi (3.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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