Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first
Updated November 9, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 97.8% and Kalshi at 95%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 2.2% on Polymarket vs 6.5% on Kalshi (4.3 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 97.8% | 95% | +2.8 pts | Kalshi |
| OpenAI | 2.2% | 6.5% | -4.3 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 97.8% and Kalshi at 95%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 2.2% on Polymarket vs 6.5% on Kalshi (4.3 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
Other events priced on both: Fed decision in December 2026 · Which party wins the 2028 presidential election · Pro football champion (2026–27 season) · NBA champion 2027 · Stanley Cup 2027 · Champions League 2027 winner · US recession by the end of 2026. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice. All pairs