Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 94.8% and Kalshi at 93%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 5.2% on Polymarket vs 10.5% on Kalshi (5.3 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 94.8% | 93% | +1.8 pts | Kalshi |
| OpenAI | 5.2% | 10.5% | -5.3 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 94.8% and Kalshi at 93%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 5.2% on Polymarket vs 10.5% on Kalshi (5.3 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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