Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › US recession by the end of 2026
Updated November 9, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Yes at 3.8% and Kalshi at 2.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 3.8% on Polymarket vs 2.5% on Kalshi (1.3 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees. ⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.8% | 2.5% | +1.3 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Yes at 3.8% and Kalshi at 2.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 3.8% on Polymarket vs 2.5% on Kalshi (1.3 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees. ⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
Other events priced on both: Fed decision in December 2026 · Which party wins the 2028 presidential election · Pro football champion (2026–27 season) · NBA champion 2027 · Stanley Cup 2027 · Champions League 2027 winner · Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice. All pairs