Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › US recession by the end of 2026
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and Kalshi at 4.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 12.5% on Polymarket vs 4.5% on Kalshi (8.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.5% | 4.5% | +8.0 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and Kalshi at 4.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 12.5% on Polymarket vs 4.5% on Kalshi (8.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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