Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Which party wins the 2028 presidential election
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 66.5% and Kalshi at 58.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 66.5% on Polymarket vs 58.5% on Kalshi (8.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 66.5% | 58.5% | +8.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Republicans | 33.5% | 41.5% | -8.0 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event
Polymarket prices Democrats at 66.5% and Kalshi at 58.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 66.5% on Polymarket vs 58.5% on Kalshi (8.0 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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