Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Which party wins the 2028 presidential election
Updated November 9, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 67.5% and Kalshi at 65.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 67.5% on Polymarket vs 65.5% on Kalshi (2.0 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 67.5% | 65.5% | +2.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Republicans | 32.5% | 34.5% | -2.0 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event
Polymarket prices Democrats at 67.5% and Kalshi at 65.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 67.5% on Polymarket vs 65.5% on Kalshi (2.0 points). Prices checked November 9, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
Other events priced on both: Fed decision in December 2026 · Pro football champion (2026–27 season) · NBA champion 2027 · Stanley Cup 2027 · Champions League 2027 winner · Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first · US recession by the end of 2026. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice. All pairs