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2028 election odds by candidate

Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

On Polymarket, JD Vance (20.6%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13.5%), Jon Ossoff (11.5%) are the favourites to win the 2028 presidential election; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic nomination at 18.2% and JD Vance the Republican nomination at 51.1%. Prices as of September 24, 2026, refreshed twice a day.

CandidateParty marketNominationPresidency24h
JD VanceRepublican51.1%20.6%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDemocrat18.2%13.5%+0.1 pts
Jon OssoffDemocrat16.4%11.5%
Marco RubioRepublican15.3%8.8%
Gavin NewsomDemocrat13.6%8.6%+1.4 pts
Kamala HarrisDemocrat6.2%4.3%
Josh ShapiroDemocrat5.9%3.0%
Pete ButtigiegDemocrat5.1%2.8%
Ron DeSantisRepublican2.8%1.8%
Mark KellyDemocrat2.9%1.7%
Tucker CarlsonRepublican3.5%1.6%
Donald TrumpRepublican2.1%1.1%
Andy BeshearDemocrat2.8%1.1%
Thomas MassieRepublican0.8%0.9%-0.1 pts
James TalaricoDemocrat2.4%0.9%
Wes MooreDemocrat1.8%0.9%
Ro KhannaDemocrat1.4%0.9%-0.1 pts
Ivanka TrumpRepublican0.9%0.5%
Donald Trump Jr.Republican1.8%0.4%
J.B. PritzkerDemocrat1.2%0.4%
Ted CruzRepublican2.1%0.4%+0.1 pts
Gretchen WhitmerDemocrat0.9%0.4%
Greg AbbottRepublican0.2%0.4%
Tulsi GabbardRepublican0.5%0.1%
Raphael WarnockDemocrat0.5%0.1%
Glenn YoungkinRepublican0.4%0.1%
Michelle ObamaDemocrat0.2%0.1%
Elon MuskRepublican0.1%0.1%
Tom CottonRepublican0.1%0.1%
Elissa SlotkinDemocrat0.1%0.1%
Pete HegsethRepublican0.4%<0.1%
Vivek RamaswamyRepublican0.2%<0.1%
Candace OwensRepublican0.2%<0.1%
Zohran MamdaniDemocrat0.1%<0.1%
Nikki HaleyRepublican0.1%<0.1%
Eric TrumpRepublican0.1%<0.1%
Abigail SpanbergerDemocrat0.1%<0.1%
Josh SteinDemocrat0.1%<0.1%
Hakeem JeffriesDemocrat0.1%<0.1%
John N. KennedyRepublican0.1%<0.1%
Kim KardashianDemocrat<0.1%<0.1%
LeBron JamesDemocrat<0.1%<0.1%
Tim WalzDemocrat<0.1%<0.1%
Alex PadillaDemocrat<0.1%<0.1%
Adam SchiffDemocrat<0.1%<0.1%
Rick ScottRepublican<0.1%<0.1%
Mike JohnsonRepublican<0.1%<0.1%
Doug BurgumRepublican<0.1%<0.1%
Tim ScottRepublican<0.1%<0.1%
Jalen Brunson<0.1%
Rahm EmanuelDemocrat2.0%
Chelsea ClintonDemocrat0.8%
Cory BookerDemocrat0.7%
Hunter BidenDemocrat0.5%
Bernie SandersDemocrat0.4%
Mark CubanDemocrat0.4%
Chris MurphyDemocrat0.4%
Jon StewartDemocrat0.4%
Josh HawleyRepublican0.4%
Brian KempRepublican0.4%

Nomination = the candidate's price in Polymarket's Democratic or Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market; Presidency = Presidential Election Winner 2028. Each name links to every live market on that person. All 2028 markets: 2028 election odds.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election on Polymarket?

On Polymarket, JD Vance (20.6%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13.5%), Jon Ossoff (11.5%) are the favourites to win the 2028 presidential election; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic nomination at 18.2% and JD Vance the Republican nomination at 51.1%. Prices as of September 24, 2026, refreshed twice a day.

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee according to Polymarket?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market at 18.2%.

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee according to Polymarket?

JD Vance leads the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market at 51.1%.

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